SUMMARY of the Article “From Conflict to Cooperation” by Aisha Khan, Dawn, October 23rd, 2024
As the world prepares for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the focus will be on enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and establishing the New Collective Quantified Goal to tackle climate change. COP29, termed the “COP of action and ambition,” is expected to align enhanced NDCs with the Global Stocktake (GST) outcomes from COP28. A significant shift is needed from fossil fuels to renewable energy, with member states urged to transition in an equitable and orderly manner. Countries are required to triple global energy capacity and improve energy efficiency by 2030. Eliminating inefficient fossil fuel subsidies is also crucial. However, the challenges remain immense, as 90% of global emissions come from fossil fuels, and governments plan to produce far more fossil fuels than the climate goals allow. By 2050, planned fossil fuel production will be 150% to 350% above safe levels. The COP Troika holds a critical role in ensuring transparency, credibility, and robust monitoring to achieve net zero by 2040 for developed countries and by 2050 for developing ones. It is essential to integrate voluntary climate pledges like the Global Methane Pledge and Forest Declaration into NDCs and ensure alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The key to COP29’s success will be accurately tracking and avoiding double-counting in climate commitments. At the same time, the world faces dire crises: food insecurity is rising, especially in Pakistan where it may affect 60% of the population by 2050. Water demand is exceeding supply globally, and Pakistan’s water scarcity is severe, with per capita water availability drastically falling. Pakistan’s reliance on glacial melt poses risks from rising sea levels, and gender inequality remains stark, with Pakistan ranking 145th out of 146 countries. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are worsening inflation and global instability. The UN General Assembly prioritized the Pact for the Future, addressing peace, security, climate change, and equity, but its success depends on a shift from conflict to cooperation (C2C). The article concludes by calling for collaboration and investment in climate stability and equity to ensure a peaceful future.
Easy/Short SUMMARY:
The article focuses on COP29, which will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, and the importance of increasing climate commitments to align with the goals of the Global Stocktake. COP29 aims to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy and improve energy efficiency, though this transition will be difficult as fossil fuels are still heavily used. The COP Troika must lead efforts to ensure transparency and monitor progress toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The world also faces severe challenges, including rising food insecurity, water scarcity, and worsening geopolitical tensions. Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to these issues. The article calls for global cooperation to address these crises and build a more equitable and sustainable future.
SOLUTIONS of The Problem:
Strengthen Global Cooperation for Climate Action
Nations must work together, prioritizing cooperation over conflict, to tackle the shared challenge of climate change. This includes joint efforts in energy transition and sustainable development.
Enhance Financial Support for Developing Countries
Developed countries need to provide financial aid and technical support to help developing nations meet their climate goals, particularly in renewable energy investments and transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Integrate Climate Policies with Global Biodiversity Frameworks
Governments should ensure that climate policies are aligned with biodiversity goals, such as those outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, for comprehensive environmental protection.
Promote Water Conservation and Management
Countries, particularly those facing water shortages like Pakistan, must invest in water management technologies, reduce wastage, and improve irrigation systems to conserve precious water resources.
Address Gender Inequality in Climate Solutions
Gender equality must be at the forefront of climate action plans, providing women with equal opportunities in decision-making and access to resources, which can enhance community resilience.
Accelerate Renewable Energy Transition
Nations should scale up investments in renewable energy, focusing on solar, wind, and hydropower, while phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
Monitor and Report Progress on Climate Commitments
Transparent and accurate monitoring of climate commitments, including emissions reductions and the fulfillment of NDCs, will be essential for building trust and accountability in global climate agreements.
Support Communities Vulnerable to Climate Change
Provide targeted assistance to communities most vulnerable to climate impacts, such as those facing food and water insecurity, to mitigate the risks posed by climate-related disasters.
Tackle Food Insecurity through Sustainable Agriculture
Governments must promote sustainable farming practices, invest in agricultural technologies, and diversify food sources to address food insecurity, especially in vulnerable regions like Pakistan.
Improve Governance and Climate Regulations
Countries need to strengthen governance structures, implement climate policies with strict regulations, and ensure that national planning aligns with global climate targets to achieve long-term sustainability.
IMPORTANT Facts and Figures Given in the article:
- COP29 will focus on enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the New Collective Quantified Goal.
- 90% of global emissions come from fossil fuels, and governments plan to produce 110% more fossil fuels by 2030 than what is consistent with limiting warming to 2°C.
- By 2050, planned fossil fuel production will be 150% to 350% above safe levels.
- Food insecurity in Pakistan is expected to rise from 40% to 60% by 2050, with 40% stunting and 17.7% wasting in children.
- Pakistan’s per capita water availability has dropped from 5000m³ to 906m³.
- Global water demand is projected to increase by 20-25% by 2050.
- Pakistan ranks 145 out of 146 countries in the Gender Parity Index.
MCQs from the Article:
1. Where will COP29 be held?
A. Paris
B. New York
C. Baku
D. Tokyo
2. What percentage of global emissions are derived from fossil fuels?
A. 50%
B. 75%
C. 90%
D. 95%
3. By how much is fossil fuel production expected to increase by 2050 beyond safe levels?
A. 50%
B. 100%
C. 150% to 350%
D. 200%
4. What is the projected increase in global water demand by 2050?
A. 20-25%
B. 30-35%
C. 10-15%
D. 5-10%
5. By how much has Pakistan’s per capita water availability fallen?
A. From 4000m³ to 1000m³
B. From 6000m³ to 1200m³
C. From 5000m³ to 906m³
D. From 3000m³ to 1500m³
VOCABULARY:
- Pivot (verb) (مرکز بدلنا): To turn or shift focus or direction.
- Ambition (noun) (عزم): A strong desire or determination to achieve success.
- Renewable (adjective) (قابل تجدید): Energy from a source that is not depleted when used, such as wind or solar power.
- Phase-out (noun) (خاتمہ): The process of ending or stopping something gradually.
- Magnitude (noun) (حجم): The great size or extent of something.
- Troika (noun) (تھری سیٹ): A group of three people working together.
- Disparity (noun) (عدم مساوات): A great difference or inequality.
- Cryosphere (noun) (برفیلی کرہ ارض): The frozen parts of the Earth’s surface.
- Watershed (noun) (آبی ذخائر): An area or ridge of land that separates waters flowing to different rivers, basins, or seas.
- Guardrails (noun) (حدود): Limits that provide safety and prevent something from going out of control.
- Bilateral (adjective) (دو طرفہ): Involving two parties, typically countries.
- Respite (noun) (وقفہ): A short period of rest or relief from something difficult.
- Multilateral (adjective) (کثیر الجہتی): Involving multiple parties, especially countries.
- Stunting (noun) (پستہ قدی): The impaired growth and development of children due to poor nutrition and other factors.
- Wasting (noun) (لاغری): A severe form of malnutrition characterized by a significant loss of body weight.
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dawn.com
From conflict to cooperation
Aisha Khan
AS we approach the 29th Conference of Parties to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, the most important discussions will pivot around enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions and the New Collective Quantified Goal. Both will require high-level political commitment with adequate financial cash flows and investments in policy and action to keep the people and planet safe. COP29, labelled as the COP of action and ambition, will be judged by how it uses the COP presidency to align enhanced NDCs with the vison of the Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28. The business-as-usual approach is not likely to achieve desired outcomes. The GST on energy at COP28 made clear the need for transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy requiring member states to:
• transition away from fossil fuel in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, in keeping with the science, and with developed countries taking the lead;
• increase global energy capacity threefold by 2030 and enhance the worldwide annual average rate of energy efficiency improvements twofold;
• eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that fail to tackle energy poverty or facilitate equitable transitions as swiftly as possible.
COP29 will mark the beginning of this journey spread over the next nine to 12 months when countries will be asked to submit enhanced NDCs aligned with the 1.5 degrees Celsius, including actionable energy transition targets and strategies, underpinned by robust implementation and investment frameworks.
Taking into account that 90 per cent of global emissions are derived from fossil fuels, the task will not be easy. It will be necessary to pair renewable and efficiency scale-up with fossil fuel phase-out, as despite an exponential rise in renewable energy, the use of fossil fuel has still not declined to safe levels. According to the Production Gap Report 2023, governments are planning on producing around 110pc more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2ºC.
The Global Stocktake on energy at COP28 made clear the need for transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
The magnitude of the production gap is also projected to grow over time: by 2050 planned fossil fuel production will be 350pc and 150pc above the levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC to 2ºC respectively.
This places a big responsibility on the COP Troika to lead by example on transparency, high integrity, credibility and a robust monitoring mechanism for achieving net zero by 2040 for developed countries and by 2050 for developing countries. The COP Troika can restore hope and re-establish trust in the multilateral system by presenting the third cycle of NDCs (NDCs 3.0) that is fully aligned with all aspects of the GST decision at COP28, including mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage.
It will be equally important to disclose how voluntary pledges (Global Methane, Forest Declaration) and alignment with the SDGs and the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework goals are integrated into NDC and tracked for implementation. The comprehensiveness, accuracy, consistency and comparability in completing the checklist while avoiding double counting as per Article 4.13 of the Paris Agreement will be the benchmark for evaluating the real success of COP29. The best way to demonstrate integrity for the COP Troika countries would be to show how national planning, governance and regulations are being developed to implement their NDCs.
As we continue to break guardrails accelerating our clash with nature, the political paradox at play is becoming both dangerous and worrisome. High level of hunger is predicted to continue for another 136 years in many developing countries. In Pakistan, food insecurity is projected to rise from 40pc to 60pc by 2050 with a 40pc stunting and 17.7pc rate of wasting.
Across the world, the demand for water is exceeding availability. Global water demand is projected to increase by 20-25pc by 2050 while the number of watersheds with predictable water supply will decrease by 19pc. Pakistan’s per capita water availability has gone down from 5000m3 to 906m3 with groundwater reserves near depletion.
The rapid decline in mass balance of cryosphere will accelerate sea level rise, jeopardising the lives and livelihoods of millions. As part of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush mountain range, Pakistan relies heavily on snow and glacial melt with a 1,050-kilometre long coastal belt exposing the country to both hydrometeorological disasters and acute water scarcity.
Gender disparity at the global level continues to deprive women of equal opportunity and access to resources. This year, Pakistan ranked 145 out of 146 countries in the Gender Parity Index, making the human capital disparity disturbingly stark.
The uptick in conflicts and disruption in supply chains leading to high inflation and mounting geopolitical tensions are adding to the brewing crisis, with no respite in sight.
In the backdrop of all the cataclysmic indicators, climate took a back seat at UN General Assembly this year to the deteriorating geopolitical context. The Pact for the Future at the Summit of the Future outlined 56 actions to turbocharge the SDGs and speed up progress on peace, security, global governance, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations.
The landmark declaration set out a promise for a revitalised world order but failed to state how it plans to translate lofty statements into realistic achievements.
The real test of intent behind diplomatically crafted language at multilateral and bilateral forums aspiring for peace and prosperity will require moving away from conflict to cooperation (C2C), recognising the need for working with each other for peaceful coexistence, investing in stabilising the climate and building a future on the principles of equity and justice.
The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
Published in Dawn, October 23th, 2024