SUMMARY of the Article “World of 2035,” by Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Dawn, April 14th, 2024
The article speculates on the potential global landscape in the year 2035, highlighting the uncertainties arising from evolving geopolitics, geo-economics, and technological advancements. It identifies four theatres of global contestation: the Indo-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and the Indian Ocean, where major power rivalries are intensifying. Shifting alliances are observed, with informal alignments forming between the US, Europe, and Australia against Russia, China, and Iran, while some middle powers opt for strategic autonomy. Multi-alignments are emerging to pursue common interests, exemplified by groups like BRICS, QUAD, and I2U2. The article also discusses six cross-cutting trends shaping global dynamics, including emerging technologies, climate change, de-dollarisation, rare earth elements competition, non-traditional security threats, and resurgent terrorism. It predicts hybrid conflicts in high-risk areas like the South China Sea, Ukraine, Middle East, Afghanistan, and Kashmir, where countries will employ various tools of national power to achieve their objectives. Despite the changing power dynamics, the US is expected to retain its leading superpower status, while China aims for peaceful rise and industrialisation. Russia seeks to revive its influence, India grapples with geopolitical constraints, and international organizations like the UN and OIC face challenges in addressing peace and security issues. The article concludes by emphasizing the fragmented and polarised nature of the world in 2035, highlighting the importance of economic resilience and societal harmony for countries to navigate through uncertainties.
Easy/Short SUMMARY:
The article predicts how the world might look in 2035, highlighting uncertainties in geopolitics, economics, and technology. It identifies areas of global tension and shifting alliances, along with trends like emerging technologies and climate change shaping the future. Hybrid conflicts are expected in key regions, with countries using various tools to achieve their goals. Despite changes, the US, China, Russia, and India will play significant roles. International organizations face challenges, and the world appears fragmented and polarised. Economic resilience and societal harmony will be crucial for countries to thrive in this uncertain landscape.
SOLUTIONS of The Problem:
Promotion of Diplomacy and Dialogue
Encourage diplomatic efforts and dialogue to mitigate tensions and resolve conflicts peacefully, fostering cooperation and stability among nations.
Investment in Sustainable Development
Allocate resources towards sustainable development initiatives to address climate change, promote economic resilience, and ensure long-term prosperity.
Enhanced International Cooperation
Strengthen international cooperation frameworks to tackle common challenges such as terrorism, cyberwarfare, and disinformation campaigns, fostering trust and collaboration among nations.
Strategic Resource Management
Implement strategies for the sustainable management of critical resources like rare earth elements, reducing dependency and mitigating competition-driven conflicts.
Promotion of Multilateralism
Advocate for the importance of multilateralism in addressing global issues, promoting inclusive decision-making and shared responsibility among nations.
Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
Develop robust conflict resolution mechanisms to address hybrid conflicts, emphasizing dialogue, negotiation, and adherence to international law.
Investment in Education and Innovation
Invest in education and innovation to equip societies with the skills and knowledge needed to adapt to technological advancements and navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.
Promotion of Human Rights and Equality
Promote human rights and equality to foster societal harmony and resilience, addressing underlying grievances and reducing social tensions.
Effective Governance and Transparency
Ensure effective governance and transparency in decision-making processes, enhancing trust and accountability within societies and institutions.
Community Engagement and Empowerment
Engage communities and empower marginalized groups to participate in decision-making processes, promoting social cohesion and resilience against external pressures.
IMPORTANT Facts and Figures Given in the Article:
- The world of 2035 is characterized by uncertainty due to evolving geopolitics, geo-economics, and technological advancements.
- Four theatres of global contestation include the Indo-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and the Indian Ocean.
- Shifting alliances and multi-alignments are observed among major powers and middle powers.
- Six cross-cutting trends shaping global dynamics include emerging technologies, climate change, de-dollarisation, rare earth elements competition, non-traditional security threats, and resurgent terrorism.
- Hybrid conflicts are expected in high-risk areas like the South China Sea, Ukraine, Middle East, Afghanistan, and Kashmir.
- The US, China, Russia, and India are expected to play significant roles, while international organizations face challenges in addressing global issues.
MCQs from the Article:
1. Which of the following is NOT identified as a theatre of global contestation in the article?
A. Indo-Pacific
B. Europe
C. Middle East
D. North America
2. What is emphasized as a potential solution for addressing global challenges in the article?
A. Unilateralism
B. Xenophobia
C. Fragmentation
D. Multilateralism
3. What is predicted as a probable nature of conflict in the future according to the article?
A. Bipolar
B. Hybrid
C. Isolationist
D. Pacifist
4. Which country is mentioned as a rising power interested in continuing its peaceful rise to become fully industrialised?
A. Russia
B. India
C. China
D. United States
5. What is highlighted as crucial for countries to thrive in the uncertain world of 2035 according to the article?
A. Military strength
B. Political dominance
C. Economic resilience and societal harmony
D. Technological superiority
VOCABULARY:
- Disorder (noun) (بے ترتیبی): A state of confusion or lack of order.
- Intensifying (verb) (شدت بڑھانا): Increasing in degree or strength.
- Ascendant (adjective) (بالا): Rising in power or influence.
- Embedding (verb) (مضمن کرنا): Fixing or firmly establishing (an idea, feeling, or attitude) within a person’s mind.
- Contestation (noun) (مخالفت): A dispute or competition.
- Kinetic (adjective) (حرکت سے متعلق): Relating to or resulting from motion.
- Resilience (noun) (مستقلی): The capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness.
- Fragmented (adjective) (ٹوٹا ہوا): Broken into small parts or pieces.
- Polarised (adjective) (قطبی بنا ہوا): Divided into sharply opposing factions or groups.
- Mitigate (verb) (کم کرنا): Make (something bad or unsatisfactory) less severe, serious, or painful.
- **
Alignment** (noun) (قطار بندی): Arrangement in a straight line or in correct relative positions.
12. Adversity (noun) (مصیبت): Difficulties or misfortune.
13. Resilient (adjective) (مضبوط): Able to withstand or recover quickly from difficult conditions.
14. Diplomatic (adjective) (سفارتی): Relating to the profession, activity, or skill of managing international relations.
15. Adherence (noun) (وفاداری): Attachment or commitment to a particular belief, opinion, or principle.
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dawn.com
World of 2035
Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry
WHAT will the world look like about a decade from now? Given that geopolitics, geo-economics, and technologies are evolving rapidly, the future is uncertain. However, there are trends that give us a clue regarding the direction of global geopolitics. Today, we are transitioning from a world order to disorder: major power rivalries are intensifying, global military expenditure is rising steeply, unilateralism is ascendant while multilateralism is in decline, and xenophobia is embedding itself in almost every country.
Four theatres of global contestation are contributing to the global disarray: Indo-Pacific (US-China competition), Europe (Russia-Ukraine war), Middle East (Palestine conflict, Israel-Iran tensions), and the Indian Ocean, where major powers including the US, UK, France, Australia, China and India want to enhance their presence. American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan had rightly predicted in the 19th century that the future of the 21st century would depend on whoever dominated the Indian Ocean.
Shifting alliances are being formed, essentially along three broad categories: the US, Europe and Australia have an informal broad alignment against Russia, China, and Iran. For some countries, such as India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and other middle powers, the preferred option is to exercise strategic autonomy. Across these two broad categories, multi-alignments are emerging to pursue common interests, such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which has expanded to include other countries, including Iran and Saudi Arabia; QUAD, a platform created by the US, Australia, India and Japan to contain China; and I2U2, which has brought together India, Israel, the US, and UAE for economic cooperation, but has been halted, for now, by the Gaza war. For its part, China is engaged with over 100 countries in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and six economic corridors, including CPEC.
These shifting alliances will be affected by six cross-cutting trends: (i) emerging technologies, such as AI platforms, multi-role drones, big data, and semiconductors, which are currently at the centre of the US-China tech war; (ii) climate change, which can spell havoc for countries with low fiscal space through extreme weather and food insecurity; (iii) de-dollarisation, an option many countries have begun to explore; (iv) rare earth elements, which are required for advancing technologies — such as smartphones, digital cameras, semiconductors, etc — and that are evoking stiff competition between China and the US, Europe, and Japan; (v) non-traditional security threats, including energy politics, cyberwarfare, disinformation campaigns and lawfare; and (vi) resurgent terrorism as concerted international response wanes.
The focus of global attention will remain on Asia.
Global contestations, shifting alliances, and the six trends that will shape the world in the coming decade will all play out in the high-risk areas of potential global conflict, including the South China Sea, Ukraine, Middle East, Afghanistan, and Kashmir. The probable nature of conflict will be hybrid, with countries using every tool of national power at their disposal to achieve their goals, including kinetic options (military strikes, use of proxies), economic instruments (sanctions, lucrative aid packages, coercion through the international monetary system) and information tools (propaganda, media, entertainment industry).
Consequently, power potential will also change. The US is a waning power, but the instruments of its national power are largely intact and can sustain it through the next decade as a leading superpower. It is also taking steps to recover ground lost to China in high-tech industry and the manufacturing sector. China is a rising power, and is interested in continuing its peaceful rise to become fully industrialised, for which it will resist involvement in major kinetic conflicts. Russia is seeking to revive its lost glory, but its energies are likely to be consumed by the conflict in Europe. India is also a rising economic power, though its geopolitical profile will be constrained by ideological politics, the North-South divide, restive minorities, and agitated farmers.
The UN would remain sidelined in matters of peace and security, but stay relevant for sustainable development and climate change. The OIC is not likely to dent the future in any major way. Asean will continue as a success story of regional integration. Europe is a resilient continent but the focus of global attention will remain on Asia in the coming decade.
The world of 2035 appears to be even more fragmented and polarised than it is today. Only countries exhibiting economic resilience and societal harmony will stand a chance against the mighty winds of change.
The writer is a former foreign secretary and chairman Sanober Institute Islamabad.
Published in Dawn, April 14th, 2024