The article provides an analysis of Pakistan’s current economic trajectory, highlighting signs of stabilization such as the PSX share index surpassing 100,000 points, a stable rupee-dollar exchange rate, and inflation plummeting to 6 percent, aided by global factors like post-Covid economic adjustments and stable oil prices. Despite these optimistic indicators, Rashid Amjad raises critical concerns about whether this stability will translate into sustainable high economic growth or lead to a stagnation trap. Challenges such as the government’s failure to honor commitments like minimum support prices for wheat have exacerbated rural poverty, compounded by subsidy cuts and rising unemployment. The looming risk of recession due to compressed aggregate demand and a potential collapse in the housing market mirrors economic crises seen in other countries like Japan and China. Global uncertainties, including potential trade wars stemming from Donald Trump’s policies, add external pressure. Pakistan remains vulnerable due to its precarious foreign exchange reserves, unmet foreign investment promises, and an over-reliance on debt rollovers. The article critiques Pakistan’s stagnant 3% growth rate, insufficient to address poverty and malnutrition, compared to India’s consistent 7% growth. Emerging sectors like IT and AI show promise but face hurdles due to weak tax compliance and » Read More…
