SUMMARY of the Article “SCO’s Future,” by Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Dawn, September 22nd, 2024

The article examines the upcoming heads of government meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to be hosted by Pakistan on October 15-16, 2024. The SCO, which originated from the Shanghai Five in 1996, has expanded over the years to include Pakistan, India, Iran, and Belarus. Representing nearly 80% of Eurasian landmass, 40% of the global population, and 30% of the world’s GDP, the SCO was initially seen as a potential land bridge between Asia and Europe, eliciting concerns from the West due to its perceived opposition to US-led global systems. However, internal dynamics, particularly India’s ambivalence towards the SCO, have weakened its cohesion. India, once a committed member, has begun to distance itself due to the organization’s perceived anti-Western stance, as seen in Prime Minister Modi’s absence from recent summits and a shift towards virtual engagements. India’s strained relations with China and Pakistan further complicate its role within the SCO, hampering initiatives like regional connectivity and anti-terrorism efforts. The article discusses India’s efforts to counter China’s influence in Central Asia and its opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Additionally, India’s “offensive defense” strategy against Pakistan has undermined the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure. With growing interest in the expanded BRICS group, including countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran, both China and Russia appear to be shifting focus away from the SCO. For Pakistan, the upcoming meeting presents an opportunity to refocus the SCO’s goals on regional cooperation, trade, connectivity, and youth engagement, despite India’s obstructive tendencies and the organization’s challenges.

Easy/Short SUMMARY:

The article discusses the future of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a group including Pakistan, China, Russia, and others, as Pakistan prepares to host its upcoming meeting. While initially seen as a bridge between Asia and Europe, tensions have arisen, especially with India distancing itself from the group due to its conflicts with China and Pakistan. India’s attitude is making it difficult for the SCO to achieve its goals of regional connectivity and cooperation. With India also focusing on competing with China in Central Asia, the organization’s cohesion is under threat. Despite this, Pakistan sees the meeting as a chance to strengthen the group’s focus on economic cooperation and youth development.

SOLUTIONS of The Problem:

Strengthen Regional Collaboration

Encourage all SCO members to prioritize regional cooperation over bilateral conflicts to foster unity and shared development goals, particularly in trade and infrastructure projects.

Promote Neutral Platforms for Dialogue

Create neutral platforms within the SCO where member states can address their bilateral issues without derailing broader regional cooperation efforts.

Foster Economic Integration

Focus on enhancing trade and economic integration among SCO members by implementing mutually beneficial projects such as regional trade agreements and infrastructure development like energy and digital connectivity.

Address Bilateral Conflicts Diplomatically

Encourage diplomatic resolutions to bilateral tensions, especially between India, Pakistan, and China, by using the SCO as a platform to mediate conflicts without compromising the organization’s broader objectives.

Youth Engagement Initiatives

Launch youth engagement programs within SCO countries to build cross-border friendships, understanding, and cooperation among the younger generation, helping to reduce hostility in the future.

Encourage Multilateral Security Cooperation

Revitalize the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure by encouraging genuine collaboration on counter-terrorism efforts, ensuring that it is not undermined by bilateral disputes.

Expand Connectivity Projects

Strengthen regional connectivity initiatives such as railways, highways, and energy grids to promote easier trade and communication between SCO member countries, thus fostering a more interconnected region.

Increase Inclusiveness in Decision-Making

Ensure that all SCO members have equal participation in decision-making processes to foster a sense of ownership and commitment to the organization’s goals.

Strengthen Legal and Institutional Frameworks

Develop stronger legal and institutional frameworks for the SCO to ensure the enforcement of decisions and initiatives, reducing the risk of political maneuvering or point-scoring.

Focus on Digital Economy and Innovation

Encourage SCO members to invest in digital economy initiatives, such as technology and innovation cooperation, to stimulate economic growth and create new opportunities for collaboration in cyberspace.

IMPORTANT Facts and Figures Given in the article:

SCO evolved from the Shanghai Five in 1996 and became SCO in 2001.
The SCO represents 80% of Eurasian landmass, 40% of the world’s population, and 30% of global GDP.
Iran and Belarus joined the SCO in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
India has begun to downgrade its participation in SCO due to its anti-Western tilt.
India opposes China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly CPEC.
The SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, based in Tashkent, has been undermined by India’s conflicts with Pakistan and China.
BRICS is gaining more focus from China, Russia, and India.

MCQs from the Article:

1. What percentage of the world’s population does the SCO represent?

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%

2. Which country joined the SCO most recently in 2024?

A. Iran
B. Belarus
C. Uzbekistan
D. Kazakhstan

3. What is one of India’s main reasons for distancing itself from the SCO?

A. Its pro-Russian stance
B. SCO’s anti-Western orientation
C. SCO’s focus on trade
D. Lack of participation from China

4. Where is the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure based?

A. Tashkent
B. Samarkand
C. Astana
D. Goa

5. Which initiative does India oppose that is central to China’s regional connectivity strategy?

A. ASEAN
B. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
C. Eurasian Economic Union
D. BRICS

VOCABULARY:

Euphoria (جوش): A feeling of intense excitement or happiness.
Misgivings (شک): Feelings of doubt or concern.
Proclaimed (اعلان کیا): Announced or declared officially.
Bilateral (دو طرفہ): Involving two sides or countries.
Hegemonic (غالب): Dominating or controlling power.
Point-scoring (نقطہ چینی): Undermining or criticizing others for personal gain.
Offensive defense (جارحانہ دفاع): A strategy of taking aggressive actions to defend oneself.
Connectivity (رابطہ): The state of being connected or linked.
Strategic (حکمت عملی): Relating to long-term plans and actions to achieve goals.
Gradual (تدریجی): Happening slowly or step by step.

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dawn.com
SCO’s future
Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry

ON Oct 15-16, Pakistan will host the heads of government meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. It would be an occasion to review the SCO’s progress towards fulfilling the promise with which it started out 23 years ago. The SCO evolved from the Shanghai Five, which was established in 1996 by China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. It assumed its name when Uzbekistan joined in 2001. By 2017, India and Pakistan also joined it. Iran came along in 2023, and Belarus a year later.

Given that the SCO membership represents nearly 80 per cent of the Eurasian landmass, 40pc of the world population, nearly 30pc of global GDP, and a significant share of oil and gas reserves, euphoria surrounded it initially. It was conceived as a land bridge between Asia and Europe. This led to misgivings in the West, which started viewing it as a strategic push by China and Russia against the US-led West and West-dominated global institutions. Last month, the Council of SCO Heads of State in Astana, Kazakhstan, further stoked Western concerns by calling for a “new democratic and fair political and economic world order”. In 2022, the Samarkand meeting of SCO heads of state had called for a gradual increase in the share of national currencies in mutual settlement of SCO members, though this did not gain much traction.

That said, the West would not be too concerned because several SCO members, particularly India, continue to have close economic ties with the US and Europe. In fact, of late, India has been seen downgrading its participation in SCO activities. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stayed away from the Astana summit. India also shifted the SCO summit it hosted last year to a virtual format. There are doubts regarding the Indian PM’s participation in the heads of government meeting that Pakistan is hosting next month. In an article published in Nikkei Asia, scholar Brahma Chellaney observed that India seems to be having “second thoughts” about its involvement in SCO, mainly because of the latter’s “anti-Western orientation”, which is at odds with the pro-Western tilt of Modi’s foreign policy.

Another dynamic at play is India’s tendency to allow its bilateral conflicts to cast a shadow on the organisation. India’s conflictual bilateral ties with China and Pakistan are hampering its own proclaimed priorities in SCO: regional connectivity and eradicating terrorism. It has also impeded efforts to align SCO states in areas of common interests. India’s approach runs counter to the ‘Comprehensive Action Plan (2023-2027) for Implementation of Long-Term Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation among the SCO Members’ that was adopted in Samarkand in 2022.

India has been seen downgrading its participation in SCO.

Apropos China, India has entered into a needless competition for increasing its influence in the Central Asian Republics, and is seeking to counter Chinese influence in regional connectivity projects. In an article published on the website of the Observer Research Foundation by its vice president in July, it was alleged that Beijing had used the SCO to “pursue its hegemonic interests rather than providing any gains to the CARs”. India also opposes China’s BRI projects, particularly CPEC.

As for Pakistan, India never tires itself of hurling baseless allegations of cross-border terrorism against it, even though it is India which has mobilised state operatives to carry out assassinations in Pakistan. India’s hostile approach towards Pakistan seems to be guided by what Ajit Doval terms “offensive defence”. This aggressive Indian tactic has undermined the work of SCO’s most im-

portant Tashkent-based mechanism, the ‘Regional Anti-

Terrorist Structure’. India has mostly used the SCO forum for point-scoring aga-inst Pakistan. When Pakistan’s foreign minister visited Goa for the SCO meeting in May last year, the host, India’s external affairs minister, avoided meeting him, and, violating the ‘Shanghai spirit’, called him a “spokesperson of a terror industry”.

Owing to these reasons, not only India, but also China and Russia are focusing more on the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE). India is also trying to become a self-proclaimed leader of the Global South. However, unless it changes its hegemonic attitude towards its neighbours, who all now face its hostility or overbearing intervention, no regional organisation in the Afro-Asian region, including SCO or BRICS, can deliver tangible regional economic cooperation in South Asia.

For Pakistan, the SCO meeting next month is an opportunity to reinvigorate the SCO platform and help sharpen its focus on promoting closer economic cooperation, particularly regional trade, connectivity, digital economy, and youth engagement.

The write is a former foreign secretary and chairman of Sanober Institute, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, September 22nd, 2024

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